Podcast

Housing Market in Election Season: Facts vs. Fear With Fred Glick and René Pérez Jr. Of Arrivva

Fred Glick, a Broker, Real Estate Realist, and Founder of Arrivva, holds a stellar track record with over $2 billion in residential transactions while grounded in a lifelong passion for real estate. René Pérez Jr. is an adept Broker and Pricing Savant, who specializes in strategic problem-solving and long-term growth. 

Join them in the We Fixed Real Estate podcast by Arrivva, where they share expertise and insights about the dynamic real estate landscape. Arrivva, a leading real estate and mortgage brokerage, caters to buyers, sellers, and mortgagees with love, integrity, and a transparent fee structure. Featured in the Wall Street Journal, Arrivva is transforming the real estate landscape, one happy client at a time.

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Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 

  • Explore the complex relationship between elections and the real estate market
  • Know what historical trends can we expect to see, and how  they impact buyer behavior
  • Discover buyer behaviors during major events as Fred and Rene shed light on the underlying reasons affecting purchase decisions
  • Dive deep into what truly influences home values beyond political outcomes
  • Learn how AI is reshaping the real estate landscape 
  • Get smart homebuying tips tailored for election season
  • Gain insights on the potential effects of shifting voter demographics on the housing market

In this episode with Fred Glick and René Pérez Jr.

Curious about how the upcoming election is affecting the housing market? Join experts Fred Glick and René Pérez Jr. of Arrivva as they unpack the myths and truths surrounding real estate during this pivotal time. Discover why many hesitate to make decisions and how this election cycle is no different.

Are macroeconomic factors more critical than political outcomes in shaping your homebuying journey? Find out how AI is revolutionizing real estate, offering insights that could change the way you think about homeownership. Don’t miss smart homebuying tips for navigating this election season and uncovering hidden opportunities in the market on We Fixed Real Estate!

Resources mentioned in this episode

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

[00:00:00] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Let’s do this.

[00:00:01] Fred Glick: Live from Burbank.

[00:00:03] Drew Thomas Hendricks: It is Fred Glick and René Pérez. René is on the road traveling back from San Jose. We are right at the cusp of the election in November. And that is the topic of the day. The topic of the day is how is this election impacting real estate. René?

[00:00:21] René Pérez Jr.: So, elections, you know, it’s kind of difficult right because right now we see an election. We see candidates that have already run and you’ve seen those presidencies. And yes, you can’t always use the past to kind of presume what the future is going to look like. But the reality is that, you know, whoever is president, people still need homes, right?

So I know that there’s fear in the air about, you know, what that means for taxes and what that might mean for people who don’t want to be in the country with whoever the president is.

[00:00:53] Drew Thomas Hendricks: I mean, how many people are really realistically leaving the country depending on these election results?

[00:00:59] René Pérez Jr.: It’s just not going to happen. And I think Fred has mentioned things like the people who are leaving weren’t going to buy a house anyway, for the most part, right? The real homebuyers who want to start a family here are not just going to get up and say, “Hey, you know what? I’m leaving because I don’t like the president.”

Most didn’t do that when the last elections happened, if anything, the only thing that’s happened was during the pandemic, people left the state and left the country, and now most of them are back. Most people are realizing, “Hey, the place that I kind of hated because of COVID restrictions. It’s actually not so bad. And I kind of miss that weather. I miss that, just whole livelihood.”

[00:01:41] Drew Thomas Hendricks: I think it’s also the people are looking for excuse not to take action always. It’s like an aversion tactic and the latest one’s going to be the election. Right after the election, it’s going to be, “Oh my gosh, it’s almost Thanksgiving. Can’t do anything then.” And then it’s going to be the holidays, “We’ll just wait for the new year.” And then it’s going to be another thing in the new year.

[00:02:03] René Pérez Jr.: Yeah. And you know, if you’re afraid of the market changing because of the elections, then in your mind, you should probably think about the idea that then you have to wait for four more years because that’s just the way elections work. Right?

[00:02:18] Drew Thomas Hendricks: That’s an interesting thought. So if you’re worried about the outcome and the outcome isn’t as you expect, you are kind of in it for four more years. So are you going to get a long-term lease or what are you going to do?

[00:02:30] Fred Glick: Let me interject here. Your house, pretend it’s a stock, okay?

The value of it goes up or down depending on situations, depending on economic condition. You know, in the old days, the plant would close and the entire town would go down economically. You know, take Johnstown, Pennsylvania. So now you have to look at it on a macroeconomic level of if this person becomes president, what’s going to happen?

Is there going to be inflation again? Are they going to pay for more jobs, job creation, pass bills like, you know, the CHIPS Act did so that it increases population in a certain location. It’s this macroeconomic thing that’s hovering over you that really is a microeconomic issue. And every single, I’m not even saying every single city, every single little area is going to be a microeconomic area for housing.

So, you know, that’s really what it amounts to. The schools start getting better and more people are going to buy in that place. The values are going to go up. So just think of your house as stock. And when is that stock you always want to sell high. So that’s all this is. I mean, or can you do something else with the money or do you need to move to a bigger house?

Everybody’s brains got to figure it out for themselves but don’t let these giant economic, I’m sorry, a political situations really bother you. It’s an economic condition. So here’s what will happen. You know, X will become the president, and the day after the stock market either will go down X or go up X one of the two.

That’s it. That’s what will happen. Then they’ll start trading on the economic report that came out the next day, it’s gone. It’s old news, but people think this stuff really lingers and lingers and lingers when in fact, these are micro little pieces of news. And it just keeps going faster than you can imagine. And you look for trends.

[00:04:43] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Yep. It is in the, you know, the horizon is always filled with fear and uncertainty. It’s only in hindsight that you go, “Oh, those were the good times.” Like, if you look at it, I’ve been in the stock market for 30 years. And there’s never been a particular month that I’m like, we’re in the good times.

It’s going to keep going. There’s always been uncertainty and doubt. And it’s only in hindsight that you see that. Like NVIDIA was always too high and now it’s still too high, but who knows if it’s going down or any other stock. It’s in hindsight that you saw the last three years were the glory years for NVIDIA, the same things with houses.

[00:05:18] Fred Glick: Yeah, NVIDIA just real quickly that the glory was they were the only guys to figure it out and figure it out on the scale. That’s it. There was no competition. Now everybody’s catching up. So guess what? NVIDIA is not going up like bababooey zoom, you know, anytime soon.

[00:05:34] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Not to go into too much stock talk, but…

[00:05:37] Fred Glick: Why not?

[00:05:38] Drew Thomas Hendricks: I saw a statistic today that NVIDIA is now 11 percent of the GDP at the height of the tech bubble, Cisco was 5 percent of the GDP.

[00:05:48] Fred Glick: Wow, Larry’s pissed, I’m sure.

[00:05:51] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Yeah.

[00:05:53] Fred Glick: Oh. He’ll come back for the vengeance. No, it just tells you. That’s why they passed the Chip Act. I mean, it’s just like, hello, keep all the chips here.

Oh, did we ever find out what happened to that place in North Carolina that had the specials sand to make…

[00:06:11] Drew Thomas Hendricks: I did. I read about that.

[00:06:14] Fred Glick: It survived?

[00:06:16] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Oh, it’s survived. It’s survived. And it wasn’t so much the sand. It was the granite.

[00:06:19] Fred Glick: The granite. Okay.

[00:06:21] Drew Thomas Hendricks: It wasn’t like the sand washed away. The granite works. It has the most pure granite. That is then slivered up or however produced. So that factory is still there. The granite is still there.

[00:06:31] Fred Glick: The only place in the world. Now that’s what you call a monopoly. That is, there’s nothing you can do about it because if you don’t have the granite, unless they throw it into some ChatGPT like product that will tell them how to manufacture it.

I mean, it’s direct. The drug companies must love this. Love it.

[00:06:56] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Mm-Hmm.

[00:06:58] Fred Glick: I mean, the health, you know, that’s the thing I really like about all this AI is what they can do for health. That’s really it. But then people gotta follow the rules.

[00:07:08] Drew Thomas Hendricks: In the pre-show, we were kind of having a chat about AI and how it’s really impacted real estate and how Arrivva is really using it correctly. Why don’t you give us a little. Well, actually, explain how AI has kind of worked its way in and how it’s become invaluable now to helping you guys level up your knowledge base and more effectively use your, help your clients.

[00:07:29] Fred Glick: Well, let’s separate this for buying, selling, and even mortgage. So, I’ll do the buy side. I’ll let René do the sell side, but on the buy side, it’s been fun. We can throw all the disclosures, inspections and all that. And we’re coming up with a better prompt. So, like say, you know, basically should you buy this house or what are the problems that it foresees?

So that’s a beautiful thing. We’re just at the beginning stages of this. So it’s obviously not worked out, but we will use that for our customers when you’re making offers. Or before you make an offer, actually. The other things we do with the buyers is what should you bid? Now, you know, we throw in as much detail as we can.

We’re going to look at the comps anyway. It’s just another, another thing to look at as opposed to the be all and end all. So, we’re going to take our experience and René, who’s just really good at pricing. Plus, price in the emotional factors. So if, you know, the history shows that the properties go for insane amounts over the listing price, like Cupertino or El Cerrito.

You know, you can kind of factor something in of what that emotional kick is. Maybe you can even find who are the people that buy? What’s the demo? Who would be bidding? So, there’s a lot of little stuff we can ask it. That’ll help, you know, it just helps us do stuff.

[00:09:09] Drew Thomas Hendricks: And it helps you lay out the groundwork analysis.

Like previously you might have a, an intern or somebody like help go through all the disclosures, lay out the bullet points and set up the playing field, if you will, for you as the expert to come in and give your final, like final analysis and recommendation to the client. Now the AI has set up that stage in a much better way to allow you to have a much more informed and much more impactful.

[00:09:36] Fred Glick: Yeah, without a doubt. You know, René’s a little more ahead of it than I am, but I’m just getting into it. And yeah, on the buy side, it really helps and we’ll keep feeding it and see what we get and it’ll get better and better. So, René, when you sell your home site.

[00:09:58] René Pérez Jr.: Yeah, so we’re selling a home and using AI.

I mean, going off of what we just said, it’s like having, you know, instead of an intern, we have an AI. So, you know, as humans, we have our own bias. AI Also sort of has its own bias. Don’t get us wrong, but it is going to be a third party that’s just going to look at the data, right? I know a lot of our buyers and our sellers want the data to follow what they ultimately do. So, you know, when you have a home to sell, the biggest question you have is how much is my house worth? Right? And so, one of the things that we’re gonna do is look at comps, look at what recently sold, what’s pending, and we’re gonna use AI to leverage, you know, what has sold recently.

What the AI thinks the home will also sold for. So we input it, we find comps, we might find comps that we didn’t know exist just because we, I have my own bias of where I’m looking for the comps. Right? So it’s a secondary tool for us to use into price things. And it’s the same way that Redfin and Zillow have their own estimates.

Sometimes they’re fairly accurate. Sometimes they’re horribly wrong, right? So it’s more of the tool as the more than, “Oh, we’re going to just only use AI.” And you know, to prep your home to sell, sometimes there’s a, and it’s something that I’m using for our current listing in San Francisco, there might be a deck that in the backyard that might need a little bit of a covering, or you want to give people an idea of what they can do with the backyard, and we’re going to create different iterations of what you can do with the backyard using AI which is going to help buyers, you know, feel a bit more confident in purchasing this house because they have different concepts, and it’s not an extra cost for the buyers to get these different ideas or, you know, we haven’t really done it, but it is possible to use AI to change the color of the house.

Oh, how would the house look like if I painted it purple or green or, you know, just keep it beige. So all of that is a part of our toolkit. And, you know, even for descriptions. The hard part is that sometimes we have a lot to say, but we only have a limited amount of characters that we can use as description words for our listings.

So we want to capture the most important words to go there so that then once it’s filtered out for the buyers, we choose the best wording for the listings, right? So even for that, you know, we use AI in every step of the way. One thing that we certainly hope we, we one day are able to use one of the Tesla Robots is to bring in some contractors and, you know, clean the house after every showing and turn off all the lights. Right? But we’re not there yet.

[00:12:44] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Almost.

[00:12:45] Fred Glick: There’s going to be competitive robots that we will evaluate the purchase of the robot depending on a lot of factors. In other words.

[00:12:55] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Probably sooner than when, sooner than later. One of the things you touched on was one of the perfect uses for AI, and that’s distilling information.

Us in our, in my field with marketing, we’re always doing AdWords, and they have to have a limited character length, and we’ve got so much to stay in that space. And probably similar with the MLS listings and stuff, you’re only allowed to say so much and it’s very good at say, I want to say all this, but I need you to do it in 300 characters. No more.

[00:13:23] Fred Glick: Okay. We’re, this is October 17th, 2024. Who are you using right now to do that?

[00:13:30] Drew Thomas Hendricks: October 17th. I’m using a combination of Claude, Claude.ai, and that’s going to be for more long-form articles and stuff, and always output into a separate document. And then for AdWords, it’s going to be the new, ChatGPT Mini.

That is pretty good. But then it also depends. You can’t just go, “Hey, ChatGPT, give me an ad.” You need to say, you need to back-train the chat with the proper prompt. And the good thing about Claude is that you can have a project and you can upload 50 documents of your clients and all their past ads and all their best-performing ads and Claude will, and all their best-performing articles and Claude will leverage that knowledge base to keep the same tone.

[00:14:14] Fred Glick: Interesting.

[00:14:15] Drew Thomas Hendricks: You can build a very comprehensive, like prompt that makes your next task that much easier. So then you’re working with a virtual assistant.

[00:14:26] Fred Glick: Yeah. And maybe you can even define the demographic that should go after you, that you should go after, and even the keywords and the headings about the ads.

[00:14:39] Drew Thomas Hendricks: And now we’re getting into kind of the latest part of real estate and kind of where I see it going. You have your client intake form. You’re asking them their psychographic profile, what they want in a house, pretty much everything about them. And you can put that into the AI and use that to evaluate disclosures or evaluate any parts about like an area. And it will help distill in your mind who that buyer is. It takes a agent, you, you honed that over 20, 30 years of doing it. So, you can kind of intuitively do it, but you can use that same intuition and stand up on the shoulders of this primary analysis and get extra insights.

Yeah. And we will work on that when you get back from your vacation. New Zealand, everyone.

[00:15:30] Fred Glick: Yeah. Hopefully he comes back in one piece. So, yeah. Be careful out there. You’re not as young as you used to be.

[00:15:41] Drew Thomas Hendricks: That is for sure. Yeah.

[00:15:43] Fred Glick: Yeah.

[00:15:43] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Let’s see as it kind of wrapping down. Current thoughts on that. So, René, you started the conversation with the election coming up, which is two weeks, two and a half weeks. Give us some parting thoughts on that. What a home buyer who may be considering buying a home in the next two weeks.

[00:16:03] René Pérez Jr.: So, I think there’s no perfect time to purchase a home, right? If you are on the sidelines waiting for the election, just forget about your own thoughts. Think about what other people are doing.

Odds are, if you have a certain mentality, other smart individuals also have that mentality. So there’s right now a portion of people who are waiting until the election to buy. And when you realize that the election does not really matter for your particular market, there are some small markets where it might affect it. Right? But if in your market, you know, it’s run by tech, like San Francisco, it’s run by technology. So it’s not run by the elections. Elections are not going to do anything. Right? If anything, it’s going to get more people into the office regardless of who’s the president so it’s going to bring prices up. In any case, the fact is that the buyers who are waiting for the elections to happen, they’re all going to come back.

They’re going to come back in early November up to after the elections happen. So you have if anything a couple of weeks to get something for better pricing. And you know, there’s even on Thanksgiving and Christmas, both for, and I have been writing offers on those holidays. I think even maybe new year’s we haven’t, but I do know that for Thanksgiving and Christmas for the last three years, three, four years, we were in offers.

So, don’t have like a, the mentality of there’s a certain dates that, “I should not be looking at because it’s a bad time,” or, “Oh, I should wait until next year.” Because the waiting game is a game of forever and always being there, right? And that’s it’s never just gonna be perfect. So that’s my, that’s the line of thinking there.

[00:17:47] Fred Glick: I’m gonna throw you a curveball. That’s a good answer, René. I’m gonna throw a curveball. Fred, what about all these people that might have moved to a swing state because they’re deeply passionate about voting? In a place that matters, could we see a large housing upturn now that they don’t have to be in that state for the next four years. No, I would think, you know, if somebody was going to do that, they would have people just rent there for the last six months. Register or the appropriate registration time of how long they haven’t lived there, vote and leave. I don’t know. I don’t know if anybody ever did that. But

[00:18:24] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Yeah, we consider it here.

[00:18:27] Fred Glick: Well, I heard there was something, you know, TikTok, who knows what’s real, but there was somebody saying like, Iowa’s now in play. Okay. And some reason for it, and there’s a lot of students, and I don’t know. You know what? It’s not gonna be just the smooth thing, and we know by, you know, midnight Eastern time who won, and the other one’s gonna just say congratulations.

It’s gonna be a, back in the courts, just like 2000, it’s gonna be cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs, and, you know. Just, there’s nothing you can do about it, people, so just sit by the sidelines, and it’s, it’s gonna be like, what it’s gonna be is the next binge-watching, except you gotta watch it every night. The new episode every night. That’s all it’s gonna be.

[00:19:20] Drew Thomas Hendricks: I’m gonna make a bold prediction. 15th, however, October 17th, my bold prediction is we spent so much time worrying about how this election’s gonna be, you know, dramatic. It’s gonna be, it’s gonna be a smooth non-event. The election will be over and we’ll all get back to our lives.

[00:19:38] Fred Glick: I would hope so. But, you know, the world is a stage.

[00:19:44] Drew Thomas Hendricks: History never repeats, it just seems similar.

[00:19:47] Fred Glick: It’s, it’s just a different methodology bringing things up to modern times. But, you know, same thing with fashion, stuff comes back that was in style before that the Nehru jacket has never reappeared in style.

[00:20:02] Drew Thomas Hendricks: The what?

[00:20:03] Fred Glick: The Nehru jacket.

[00:20:04] Drew Thomas Hendricks: What’s a Nehru jacket?

[00:20:05] Fred Glick: It was in the sixties at some point. It was, it’s a jacket that’s worn in India. And it like cuts down here. There’s like a square.

[00:20:16] Drew Thomas Hendricks: Oh, I’m thinking of the Beatles. Beatles wore it.

[00:20:20] Fred Glick: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So that was the fashion for a while, but it has never come back.

[00:20:24] Drew Thomas Hendricks: It’s bound to. Make another bold prediction, Nehru jacket’s coming back in 2025.

[00:20:30] Fred Glick: Let’s put something up on Twitter. You know, let’s do a poll: “When do you think the Nehru jacket is coming back?” Anyway. Boy, we hit a lot of stuff. This was a real podcast today. We did it. We’re just real estate.

[00:20:44] Drew Thomas Hendricks: We did it. So it’s been in the late episode of We Fixed Real Estate.

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